A photograph captures four middle-aged adults walking along a tree-lined sidewalk in late afternoon light. They appear relaxed and engaged in conversation, wearing casual clothing and sneakers. The scene conveys community, movement, and healthy aging in a suburban neighborhood.

mindset

The weight of the nation: can we reverse the trend?

In 2021, nearly half of U.S. teens and about 75% of adults were overweight or obese. That’s a dramatic rise since 1990. And if trends continue, the numbers could climb even higher. By 2050, experts predict that more than 80% of adults and nearly 60% of adolescents in the U.S. could be affected.

These alarming forecasts come from a major new study published in The Lancet, based on decades of data from 132 sources across the country.

What do “overweight” and “obese” mean?

For adults, being overweight means having a Body Mass Index (BMI) between 25 and 30. A BMI over 30 is considered obese. For children and teens under 18, the definitions are based on international health guidelines.

Why this matters

The U.S. already has some of the highest obesity rates in the world. In 2021 alone, 208 million Americans were classified as overweight or obese. This public health crisis isn’t just about numbers, it comes with serious consequences:

Health: Obesity is linked to diabetes, heart disease, cancer, mental health issues, and more. It was tied to 335,000 deaths in 2021.

Life expectancy: Rising obesity is slowing gains in U.S. life expectancy compared to other wealthy nations.

Cost: Obesity-related health care could cost the U.S. $9.1 trillion over the next decade.

Kids and teens at risk

Obesity among adolescents (ages 15–24) has more than doubled since 1990. Nearly 1 in 5 children ages 2–19 are living with obesity today. If trends continue, 1 in 5 kids and 1 in 3 teens could be obese by 2050.

These early weight issues often lead to chronic illness, mental health challenges, and social struggles.

Disparities run deep

Obesity rates vary widely across the U.S., especially in Southern states. Racial and socioeconomic gaps also persist. Black and Hispanic communities are disproportionately affected due to systemic barriers like limited access to health care, healthy food, and safe spaces to be active.

What’s being done

Policy changes: Cities like Seattle have seen success with soda taxes helping reduce childhood BMI.

Community initiatives: Programs promoting physical activity and food access are being tested in cities and schools across the country.

Medications: New weight-loss drugs show promise, but access and long-term safety remain concerns.

Tech tools: Mobile apps are helping some people track their weight and health behaviors, though scaling them up remains a challenge.

The bottom line

America’s obesity crisis is growing rapidly. But there’s still time to shift course. With a strong combination of policy, education, community support, and innovation, progress is possible.